B. Agenda

Thursday 7^th of October

Venue: Marine Science building – Room C (ground floor)

Friday 8^th of October

Venue: Xenia Building – PC centre (ground floor)

C. Introduction

On Thursday 7th and Friday 8th of October the MCDA-RES Training Course entitled ‘Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Renewable Energy Projects’ was held in Mytilene, Lesvos. Participants included the MCDA-RES project partners and various stakeholders from different countries around Europe. These comprised of NGOs, consultants in energy agencies, investors and people who work in regional and municipal authorities, all of them dealing with different aspects of renewable energy sources.
 

D. Aim of the Training Course

This Training Course was organized in order to present the MCDA-RES Tool kit to various stakeholders from different countries. During Thursday’s morning session the project participants presented their experiences with the various software included in the MCDA-RES Tool Kit. In the Thursday afternoon session the various stakeholders were given the chance to express their views on multi criteria decision analysis, the difficulties in launching renewable projects and the importance of switching to renewable energy. The Training Course ended by launching a simulation exercise during the Friday session where all of the participants were given a chance to apply the Tool kit in various case studies.
 

E. Presentations of project partners – the Greek, Dutch and Spanish experience

E.1. Presentation by Mr Stratis Giannoulis, University of the Aegean
Short introduction on RES and MCDA

This presentation dealt with the major technological aspects of RES, the situation in the EU and the multi criteria decision analysis methodologies.
The major benefits from renewable energy sources are:

• low environmental impact

• “infinite” energy

• local investment

• social benefits

• energy independency

• easy access to energy for the rural areas

On the other hand there are some major drawbacks which are:

• extensive land use

• visual intrusion

• creation of noise

• indirect air emissions

• thermal and chemical pollution

• ecosystems disturbance

Regarding fossil fuels, oil is estimated to last for the next 20 to 30 years and its emissions are responsible for the global warming phenomenon. Coal has a limited economic future for power production in the EU and its future is linked to the reduction of its environmental impact. Natural gas can cause long term supply problems, while nuclear energy cannot expand without a political consensus; the issue of nuclear waste is “thorny” and there is always the risk of an accident.

The Kyoto’s protocol target concerns the reduction of six greenhouse gases. EU is committed to reduce these gases at 8% below the 1990 levels by 2010. In order to succeed to this target, EU has to invest extensively in renewable energy. This could be quite beneficial as it can offer security of supply, affordable and stable energy prices, ecologically sustainable energy supply, creation of jobs and there are going to be economic benefits for EU’s RES industry in the international markets. It is widely accepted that energy dependence can cause implications to the economy, the environment and to international relations.

There is an increase in RES investments and this can be attributed to the need to fulfil the Kyoto commitments, the deregulation of the energy markets and the technological improvements. However, there are still obstacles related mainly to the high initial investment cost.

According to current trend, there is going to be an increase in the energy demand of about 1 to 2% annually. It should be mentioned that there is great potential through energy saving. Despite the fact that the energy efficiency is at about 25%, there is great economic potential in improving that figure. The sectors which are quite crucial are industry, lightning, electrical appliances and transportation.

Multi-criteria decision analysis deals with the process of making decisions in the presence of multiple objectives. It is essential to understand that the decision is highly dependent on the preferences of the decision-maker and that it is a compromise.

The presentation ends with a short overview of the MCDA-RES project.

E.2. Presentation by Dr Heracles Polatidis, University of the Aegean
Development and application of an MCDA-RES software tool for RES

This presentation deals with the MCDA-RES Tool kit and gives a description of its structure and the steps that are followed. The project’s objective is to develop a Software Decision Tool that will enable the Multi-Criteria Analysis of RES investments and apply it in several case-studies. The aim of the Tool-Kit is to provide a coherent framework of sequential steps that would lead the decision process. There are eight (8) steps for the tool kit and these can be summarized as follows:

STEP 1: Problem Identification and Initial Data Collection
STEP 2: Identification of Stakeholders
STEP 3: Creation of Alternatives
STEP 4: Establishment of Criteria
STEP 5: Criteria Evaluation and Preference Elicitation
STEP 6: Selection of the MCDA Technique
STEP 7: Model Application
STEP 8: Stakeholders Analysis of Results and Feedback

The way to navigate through the web-site and the case studies is described. Then each Step is explained analytically. In Step 1 the decision context is introduced and the general societal call for action is revealed. Step 2 provides guidelines for correct stakeholder identification. These individuals consist of all the different people associated with the planning and decision process, those who have a legitimate responsibility to participate, and/or add a socio-political dimension to the process. As for the creation of alternatives (Step 3) there are a few questions to be addressed such as what is an alternative scenario, what are the feasible types of alternatives, and so on. The establishment of criteria (Step 4) depends on certain issues such as the legal requirements, local nature, and the types of criteria for the RES projects. In Step 5, the information needed concerns economic data, environmental impacts, social impacts, technological base and the stakeholders’ preference between the criteria – weights. Step 6 introduces the four (4) different software included in the MCDA-RES Tool Kit, namely REGIME – FLAG, ELECTRE III, NAIADE and PROMETHEE II. The presentation concludes with an analysis of the appropriateness of the MCDA-RES frame as an integrated tool for RES evaluation and decision-making.

E.3. Presentation by Dr Frank Bruinsma, Free University of Amsterdam
MCDA-RES; the Dutch case studies

This presentation deals with the two Dutch case studies which took place in the prefectures of Utrecht and Flevoland. Flevoland is obliged by law to have 220 MW capacity installed while Utrecht must include 50 MW.

The particular problems had to be tackled in the case of Utrecht are:

• Cultural and historical valuable area

• Important habitats for birds

• Lack of space

• Hardly any windmills installed (0,2 MW)

• Obligation to install 50 MW

The main RES evaluation criteria included:

• Technical specifications

• Energy benefits

• Nature and birds

• Landscape and cultural historic values

• Noise

• Safety

• Shade of rotor blades

The multi-criteria technique REGIME ANALYSIS was selected for this case. The basic idea is to rank a set of alternatives by means of their pair wise comparisons in relation to a set of criteria. Regime Analysis makes use of an impact matrix and a set of weights. The method can cope with qualitative, quantitative and mixed data.

In the Province of Flevoland, the major issues identified are that it is a new ‘polder’ land, with sufficient space, it already fulfils the 200MW commitments and the question been how to facilitate new projects.

The main categories of criteria identified for this case to be included in the FLAG multi-criteria model are:

• Spatial planning guidelines

• Ecological guidelines

• Landscape

• Living environment

The stakeholders’ analysis of the results showed that the scores never exceed the critical threshold values (no black flags), there was no legal basis for rejecting permit and the problems were solved by negotiation and mediation. So the conclusion is that the Flag model is useful in rather simple projects with clear threshold values.

E.4. Presentation by Ms Daniela Russi and Mr Gonzalo Gamboa, Autonomous University of Barcelona
MCDA-RES; the Spanish case studies

This presentation concerns the Spanish case studies. The first case study presented is the wind farms in western Catalonia. The conflict was with the towns that had migration trends. The municipalities and the citizens were supporting the wind park projects. Nevertheless, the social movements were against the implementation of the parks mainly due to the process followed. These groups involved ecologist groups, second residencies, neo-rural movement and many more. The proposed method was the Social Multi Criteria Evaluation (SMCE). The steps followed were the problem identification, identification of stakeholders, the creation of alternatives, establishment of criteria, criteria evaluation and preference elicitation, selection of the MCDA technique, model application and stakeholders’ analysis.

The twelve (12) alternatives presented were based on actors’ preferences and technical feasibility. These were constructed by means of GIS software. The criteria formulated were the number of jobs, owners’ benefits, local government income, distribution of income, socio-economic compatibility, visual impact, deforestation, noise, reduction of CO2 emissions and installed power capacity.

The conclusion is that the Top-Down decision making procedure faced severe technical and practical problems. The SMCE framework increases transparency in the public decision- making. It is a learning tool for both the analyst and the social actors.
 

E.5. Presentation by Ms Myrsini Salta, University of the Aegean
MCDA-RES; the Greek case studies

This presentation deals with the Greek case studies. The evaluation of a wind project in Troizina was conducted through the 8 Steps of the MCDA-RES framework. The problem identification involves the installation of a wind farm in Aderes mountain; it is a private investment with a total capacity of 31,45MW, including 37 wind turbines with a capacity of 0,85MW each.

Data were collected from both the municipalities of Troizina and Poros. The main problems are that although the installation is in Troizina the visual impact is in Poros. Also the decision centre is in Pireaus and the local municipalities have little or no participation in the procedure. There is also the fact that both municipalities have no previous experience with RES investments.

The alternative scenarios that were recognised were four (4) with first been ‘do nothing’ and the other 3 giving a variation in the number of wind turbines installed. 17 criteria were divided in energy, economic, environmental, social and technological groups. The preference elicitation was based on criteria ranking and that because the direct assignment of criteria was impossible due to lack of time and increased criteria number. The Investors’ Association and Greenpeace underline criteria that refer to climate change and social dimensions and at the same time underestimating local environmental impacts and economic dimensions. As for Poros and Troizina municipalities, they both underline criteria which are relevant to the local communities with Troizina underlying the amount of RES production and Poros the visual impact. The MCDA technique used was the PROMETHEE II and the preferences of the stakeholders were presented.

The conclusion is that most stakeholders prefer large RES investments. Particularly the investors wish to increase their market share and decrease dependence on imported fuels. Local authorities emphasize on compensative benefits. Environmental bodies mainly raise issue related to the greenhouse gases and other pollutant emissions.

However, economic and aesthetic reasons have promoted reactions at the municipal level. Furthermore, reaction may occur due to NIMBY effect, environmental concerns, political issues and conflicting priorities. The MCDA-RES Tool-kit aims to provide a decision-making framework in such situations where different stakeholders are allowed to participate, multiple criteria are taken into consideration and several alternatives are compared.

F. Presentations by the Stakeholders

F.1. Presentation by Ms. Dorien van Cooten; Province of Utrecht
MCDA-RES in the province of Utrecht

This presentation deals with certain problems occurred in the Province of Utrecht due to the need for an increase in RES installations in the area. It begins with a short overview of the BLOW agreement which imposes 50 MW of wind energy installed by 2010 in the Province of Utrecht. Today a new regional plan is being prepared. This has been made public and participation is allowed for everyone. Up till now there are 6000 reactions as opposed to 350 in 1994. This response is due to easy access of information, to an active communication policy, to a definite policy decision and to nine (9) information meetings that have been held.
The topics concerned are:

• Noise nuisance

• Problems of shade

• Landscape / “pollution of the horizon”

• Usefulness and need of wind energy

• Birds and nature

• Value of houses

F.2. Presentation by Mr Hugo Gordijn
MCDA and RES, the French experience

This presentation deals with RES in France and the country’s policy in that area. In France, when dealing with renewable energy projects, there is a strong top-down decision-making approach. The energy system is quite centralised and the decision system lacks transparency.

The current policy dictates that by 2040, France will move to a decentralised energy system with part of the energy produced by hydrogen and the other part either from renewable energy sources or from nuclear energy. The truth is that there is a lot of pressure from the EU in order to comply with the Kyoto protocol.

F.3. Presentation by Mr Velimir Segon; Hrvoje Pozar Energy Agency
Status of biomass and bioenergy in Croatia

This presentation is about biomass and bioenergy in Croatia as well as the energy situation of the country. The energy supply of Croatia is mostly covered by liquid fuels, natural gas and large hydro stations. 3.8% of the energy supply is covered by renewable energy sources and if large hydro (>5MW) is included the percentage goes up to 17.7%. However, RES potential is considered to be as high as 46%.

The energy institute of Hrvoje Pozar was founded in 1994 and it is a non-profit public institute with 63 employees at the moment. The most important biomass and waste utilization energy programme is BIOEN, started in 1997 and its main aim is to increase the use of environmentally-sound and cost competitive bioenergy on a sustainable basis to meet future energy demands. The vision is to provide 15% of Croatian energy needs from biomass and waste. The results of the programme so far can be summarised as follows:

• Bioenergy regional and local potential estimation

• Demonstration projects

• National legislation preparation and implementation

• Contribution to the Energy Strategy of the Republic of Croatia and inclusion of bioenergy as the most important renewable resource in a near future

• Promotion and information dissemination (publications, leaflets and videos)

• Students education, involvement and participation

There is also the International Energy Agency’s Bioenergy Task 29 which looks at the socio-economic drivers in implementing bioenergy projects and Croatia is taking part in it.

F.4. Presentation by Mr D. Manzaris; Local Municipal Development Company
MCDA and RES in Lesvos

This presentation deals with AIOLIKI S.A., a local municipality development company activated in the field of wind energy. AIOLIKI was founded in 1991 and initially (in 1994) installed two (2) wind turbines (300 kW each) at a site located eight (8) Km south of Mytilene. Then, it installed another (225 kW) turbine in the same site (in 1997). There is also a photovoltaic array in the specific location. The future plan for the area is the creation of a bigger wind energy park (with total installed capacity of 2.5 MW) which is additionally going to be used for environmental education purposes.

F.5. Presentation by Mr Ilias Plastiras; Sustainable Energy Consultant
Sustainable Energy Action Agency

This presentation concerns the Sustainable Energy Action (SEA) agency, which is promoting sustainable energy use in Southwark & Greater London. It is an institution established in 1998 as a SAVE Energy Agency. SEA carries out the following tasks for businesses:

• Energy audits

• Overheating audits - SHADE

• Renewable ESCO

• Transport Advice

• Business Travel Plans

• Environmental Audits

• Low Energy Design Consultancy

SEA is also a partner in an EU-ALTENER project for saving electricity and purchasing “Green Electricity” in office buildings in seven European countries. The aim of the project (among others) is to disseminate a methodology for detailed analysis of the electricity demand in office buildings.

F.6. Presentation by Mr Santiago Gomez; EHN Company
How to implement wind power with public support; the experience of EHN

This presentation deals with EHN, an independent company which solely focuses on renewable energy projects, with the mission to become an international benchmark and to demonstrate the technical and economic viability of a sustainable energy model. Up till now the company has installed 2,229 MW.

Due to the fact that wind farms are located in natural habitats, there is a need for care for the environment. Moreover it is advisable to have the acceptance by the local community as well as the need to create some kind of added value at a local level.

The Navarre is the location where the first company’s wind farm was installed. It is an area with excellent wind potential and it is visible to 250,000 people. The main key was to avoid the risk of public rejection. Authorities, political institutions, environmentalists, conservationists and mountaineering groups were initially contacted and invited to participate in the decision-making process. After the consultation the Regional Government finally approved a 600MW plant.

F.7. Presentation by Prof. Joaquin Coromiras; Academic Investor
Experiences from Spain: 1979 - 2004

This presentation deals with the early developments in Spain for the wind energy projects, started in 1980 with educational activities, and moved on with public open contest for wind turbines. The first wind farms were mostly installed by public companies and the bottom line was that wind is interesting if MW are installed and not kW. The first public action was the promotion and support of wind farms as well as some regional activities like the wind map of Catalonia.

Currently, opposition is associated with the increased number of wind farms already present and with the obstacles from some regional governments. These arguments are getting stronger due to the fact that there were negative experiences from the early developments, from lack of procedures and lack of culture.

Currently there are lots of changes in the wind sector from the new government in Catalonia. The wind tower vandalism stopped, there is a new wind map with better criteria and it brought many social actors in the discussion table. But there are still some things lacking today like open local participation, regional or national wind association, integrated environmental culture and involvement of the universities, particularly in environmental and social issues.

F.8. Presentation by Mr M. Safos; Greenpeace Hellas
Greenpeace and RES

This presentation reveals the need for a switch in renewable energy sources by presenting the various problems caused by the current energy situation.

The increase in the mean earth temperature is a fact. Our lives are going to be affected by the climate change in the following ways:

• The global average sea level has risen by 10-20 cm over the last century and models project it will rise another 9-88 cm by the year 2100.

• Coastal zones and small islands are extremely vulnerable.

• Salt-water intrusion will reduce the quality and quantity of fresh water supplies.

• 1 million species will vanish by 2050.

• More extreme weather events are expected. Insurance companies are already alarmed by the increased damages, attributed to weather events.

• Ecosystems will be affected in various ways.
  Up to 400 million people may have to immigrate because of climate change, causing frictions between countries.

There is a linear relationship between the amount of fossil fuels burned, the rise in CO2 concentration, the earth’s temperature rise and the damages. Greece is committed to restrict increase of emissions (in year 2010) to no more than 25%, above 1990 levels but the current situation is not very promising. Other countries have more successful visions for the future. The renewable installations in Greece are also well below the obligations to the EU. The positive effects of renewable energy is not only restricted to climate change but it also creates jobs, promotes energy independency, promotes peace, helps local development and creates a better environment. There are three main obstacles that have to be overcome and those are license permit procedures, grid in areas with high wind potential and legal implications. Public Power Corporation (Greece) should set up an ambitious vision to gradually phase out brown coal and switch to clean forms of energy.

 

F.9. Presentation by Mr Ach. Plitharas; WWF Hellas
WWF and RES

This presentation from the representative of the WWF Hellas, underlines the problems from the current energy situation around the globe and in Greece particular.

There is a need to switch to renewable energy sources. Recent studies showed that many terrestrial species will become extinct by 2050 due to climate change. There is also the obligation to fulfil the Kyoto commitments.

The Greek picture is that currently RES contributes by 1.2% to the country’s electricity production. Nevertheless, due to pressure from the EU an increase in the share of RES power production has been noticed. The main efforts are for wind and small-scale hydro. The benefits for switching to RES are the following:

• Environmental protection

• Independence from oil

• Reduction in greenhouse gases emissions

• Toxic waste reduction

• New employment generation

• Increased competitiveness

• Income gains by cash flows though EU programs and subsidies

Nevertheless there are many implementation problems as well as disadvantages for renewable energy projects. Those are the bureaucracy, lack of cooperation between stakeholders, no CO2 tax, no “green” prices, no tax exemption or deduction for RES and insufficient electricity grid.

The WWF’s proposals are the following:

• RES pricing reconstruction

• Effective subsidies for RES projects

• Tax exception or deduction for RES both at the household level and the commercial sector

• Research and Development: administrative support of demonstration projects

• Full integration of RES into the cohesion fund and the structural funds

• Simplification of the authorization procedures, by incorporating the principles of sustainable development

• Substantial briefing of local communities in order to understand RES benefits

But the most important of all is to promote energy saving as most of the energy used today is done in an inefficient way.

 

F.10. Presentation by Ms Anna Sera; Local People –general public
The windmill project in Coma Bertran

This presentation is about a windmill power plant in Coma Bertran (Spain) and the conflicts rose from the local communities. The project is initiated from a company called GERRSA and it involves the installation of 16 windmills in the towns Vallbona de les Monges and els Omells de na Gàia.

The actors involved in the project are the Catalan government and parliament that act according to the wind energy map, the company GERRSA, as well as the Senan and Valbona councils. The people of Senan have worked up till now to stop the project by meetings with politicians and scientists, with demonstrations, informative propaganda on the web and local mass media as well as organising excursions. The local people feel frustrated because the project was formulated without asking their opinion.

G. Simulation Exercise

The Friday morning session started with a short navigation through the MCDA-RES Tool-kit in order for the participants to obtain an overview of the whole procedure. Then the first task given to the participants was to find the impact matrix of the Troizina case study so as to start familiarize themselves with the Tool-kit. The first model used in the Training Course was the PROMETHEE. With the aid of the MCDA-RES project scientists who supervised the Friday’s session, alternatives were created and pertinent evaluation criteria were established. The stakeholders-guests, participating in the simulation exercise, set the criteria weights, and then the results were formulated. The second model used was the REGIME, and the same procedure was followed. The third simulation model used was the NAIADE which was used for the creation of the Social Impact Matrix. This is a type of evaluation used by the specific method. During the simulation exercise, each participant was given a role as stakeholder, which was based on their identity so as to have a more realistic approach in the simulation of the decision process. The way the participants were allocated to roles for the Training Course is shown in the Figure 1 below:

H. Summary regarding user comments and requirements

During this session the participants had the opportunity to see how the MCDA-RES Tool-kit can be applied and comment on its functionality. One of the first comments was that the Tool-kit gives a structured way of the whole bargain process. Also the DMs are motivated to cooperate in order to reach a decision, thus it becomes easier to understand each other. Those who participated in the Training Course stressed out the fact that it is quite beneficial as a useful guide for peoples’ minds. Generally, the whole process of understanding and learning the Tool-kit urges the DMs to clear out explicitly their preferences. Finally, it was mentioned that the eight-step approach which is provided by the Tool-kit and leads the decision process, is quite well understood.

Furthermore, the participants expressed some requirements regarding the Tool-kit. One of them was that when the Steps appear on the screen, it should not only be their number but their name as well. In this way, the user has a better understanding of the eight-step approach. On the Step concerning the formulation of the criteria, the way these are being calculated should be more transparent in order for people to have a more clear view of the whole procedure. Some people also expressed the view that the procedure becomes a bit complicated, since the calculation of many criteria is involved in the process. Concerning the evaluation of the criteria in PROMETHEE, only the criteria ‘Net Present Value of the Investment’ should be included. The ‘Pay-back period’ was not considered necessary for the evaluation.

It was decided that a detailed questionnaire regarding the user-friendliness of the program will be circulated and responses will be incorporated in the whole agenda.